Tuesday, July 15, 2008

gas and politics.

more politics tangent...

things that interest/worry me, the killing of the undp leader in somalia. fuck. hezbollah got veto power in lebanon and a prisoner swap with israel. lame. afghanistan is definitely getting worse, but luckily petraeus is now in charge of both theatres just in time to fuck some shit up. iraq is looking a lot lot lot better. (check this out... by far the best indicator of iraqi development ive found thus far.) i think its about time the us focuses on afghanistan and finishes what they started. 20000 troops in afghanistan? seriously.

so im adding this because a few people have been asking me about the indymac failure. if you want info on that, i like this. basically, no, the economy is not about to collapse. but if youre in total panic mode (like some people i know) and will stop at nothing to know what banks might be at risk, the bove list has the best methodology ive seen so far. ok now back to our regularly scheduled programming...

i hear a lot of silly hippy jibber jabber about the price of gas and some really idiotic schemes for boycotts and protests. obviously, ive kind of been itching to give a little info. basically the important point is this... lotta doomsday talk about running out of oil, but the current crisis, while influenced by emerging markets adding to the demand, is mostly the result of speculation. about what? about this.

the actual consumption versus supply has not shifted as radically as the price. check it... (and thats not even considering that production is increasing over time as well.) let me put it this way. the actual fundamentals of production and consumption changes are pretty stable over time, so these sudden price fluctuations are not based on those fundamentals, but shocks and anticipated shocks that may never even materialize. same shits been happening throughout recent history... so what do i think of oil prices now? its a bubble. beware the burst if obama wins before an attack on iran. sorry if thats not exciting and apocalyptic... but maybe this will cheer you up.

speaking of obama... pretty much everyone i know is bonkers for obama and i feel like i owe them an explanation. im going to poop here for two reasons... 1. because time flies when your poopin on stuff (-cindy) and 2. because people keep asking me what i think and i can now point them in this direction...

im undecided.

most people will look at me funny and be like really? not obama? but the answer is no. not yet anyway. need more input. (-johnny 5)

obama has some pretty amazing qualities that dont have anything to do with his presidential competency. just because of who he is, his ascendancy to the presidency (unintentional rhyme) will bring renewed credibility (is that another rhyme?) to americas image in the world. and as much as i dont think america should be making descisions solely for love and attention, (i have already got that covered... see? i do it for my country!) a kid being brainwashed in some waziristan madrasa is going to want an explanation from his bushy bearded mullahs when a minority 1st generation immigrant who went to school in indonesia with a name like barack hussein obama becomes president in a country supposedly controlled by a jewish christian zionist alliance.

i mean dont get me wrong... aipac has a seriously unfortuanate grip on the us government... but we shall overcome! (wait, what? oh sorry i just watched an ambiguosly hopeful obama speech and im feeling inexplicably inspired by an undeniably desirable vision that can apparantly be obtained simply by supporting obama hopefully enough. oh and apparantly through protectionism, universal healthcare, and a hasty withdrawal from iraq.)

in case you cant tell, i already got started on the cons. obama is an awesome dude, dont get me wrong... id fist pound the shit out of him. (why am i turned on?) but despite all the change rhetoric, his policies are really nothing that revolutionary... theyve all been vetted at some point by some politician or another. so why wasnt everyone going nuts for those politicians? like i said... obama is not about his policies or his plans. bonkers for obama is about who obama is, not what he will do.

and unfortuanately, i disagree with a lot of the things he wants to do, the most important of these being his protectionism and his iraq policy. until recently, obama said he wanted to have all combat troops out within 16 months. i mean seriously? could you imagine the disasterous consequences if we stuck with that no matter what happened in the meantime? i think obama will be the next president and so luckily, hes calmed down on that stance, saying he will reevaluate when he takes his iraq trip. +2 obama. i always thought he seemed too intelligent to be serious about that... but that kind of means he just said it to win the primaries. -1 obama. really that should be a -2... but would he have won the primaries without saying that? probably not and obamas no idiot. so only -1. net +1 for moderating stupid stance.

now the protectionist shit. same exact story i think... i just find it hard to believe someone so educated and so eloquent can seriously be against free trade. but alas, do educated eloquent people control the vote in crucial swing states like ohio? nope... joe whitey mcretard does. and since the emerging economies of the world are responsible for our friend's plight, he is fully convinced that we can close our borders, pray a lot more, and pretend theyre not there. so what do i want from obama? more moderation.

when do i expect to have my answer? after a debate or two. mccain is way too intelligent not to confront obama about these clearly populist poopforbrains policies. mccain is an awesome dude... this is definetly not bush v kerry. i have a profound respect for the dude, even if he drools while he sleeps. (my cousin rode next to him on a flight to phoenix.) in fact im pretty sure i agree with mccain much more than obama on policies. actually... let me take a second to get slightly annoyed.

this whole thing about mccain being bush all over again is probably the stupidest thing since bush got reelected. this is a dude with millions who flies economy when hes on public funds. this is a dude who got destroyed by bush in the 2000 primaries because he refused to do the disgusting shit bush and rove did to him. this is a dude whos central platform of campaign finance reform would probably eliminate politicians like bush from the political landscape. just because you support obama, dont slander a dude who tried to stop bush from getting the presidency in 2000. its just ummm... how can i put this... stupid.

ok anyway... obamas answers when mccain confronts him in a debate will be crucial for my vote, and im assuming theres a few people out there like me. if he shows himself to be a moderate... if he drops some hints that he basically just said some of his stupider policies for the primaries... he will probably win me over.

im a fucking libertarian, so no, obviously i wont agree with him on a lot of things. but who he is... his ability to change americas image, his ability to inspire people, and his foreign policy perspective that only someone with foreign parents can understand... those will outweigh our disagreements.

anddd im done.