Thursday, January 5, 2006

sharon.

i have on multiple occasions given you kids my perdictions for a huge war in the middle east... through blog or conversation...

the earliest documentation of my prediction is september 13, 2002. i formed it probably a few months prior to writing it down so that i had proof for when it happened.

my prediction reads "death of prime minister (sharon?) leads to replacement by netanyahu, who will begin war."

now heres a quote from slate. "If he calculates his moves wisely, Netanyahu is the most likely candidate to gain from the new political situation." (http://www.slate.com/id/2133835/fr/rss/)

now heres more background. since i said that... in chronological order...

arafat (leador of palestine) died, creating a power vacuum in palestine that abbas (his succesor and supporter of peace) has been unable to control. hamas (a militant palestinian group that wants war with israel) has been steadily gaining in palestinian elections. now in israel, sharon was formerly in the same party as netanyahu (likud party) and therefore they were not political competitors. sharon implemented a withdrawal from occupied palestinian territories (gaza withdrawal) which split the likud party between his supporters (and withdrawal supporters) and netenyahu with his supporters (opposing the withdrawal.) they became competitors. sharon and his supporters formed a new party, which became the leading kadima party. this made netenyahu leader of the now second most powerful party, likud, and therefore sharons main competitor for prime minister. now, sharon is dead. elections are in three months.

heres the quote again. "If he calculates his moves wisely, Netanyahu is the most likely candidate to gain from the new political situation."

here is what i think will happen now.

just before he got dead, sharon ended a long period of relative peace by bombing and such in palestinian territories. so just before he died, peace got pooped on. now sharons replacement in the kadima party will probably prove uncharasmatic and unpopular, and the party may fall apart. even if it doesnt, i dont think it will have the political support to win the election. who does that leave? netenyahu. i think we all know that people usually respond to extremism by becoming more extremist... so at this same time, either palestine will react to israels hardliner (netenyahu) by turning hardline themselves and electing hamas. (prowar.) or hamas may be elected independently, causing israel to react by turning hardline and electing netenyahu. (prowar.) either way... both sides will fall to hardline prowar types... netenyahu will probably want to undo the gaza withdrawal by reinvading and taking it by force anddd sooo... viola! war.

i hope someday someone realizes how dead on my predictions are. they might declare me a prophet... or at least buy me an ice cream. its pretty ridiculously frustrating that ive probably made one of the most incredibly accurate predictions in history, but only single digit amounts of my friends will ever realize it because people are fucking retarded.

if you do understand... you, like me, are probably getting scared at how perfectly everything is falling into place. (and maybe want to declare me a prophet or at least buy me some ice cream.) admittedly, there is one huge discrepency in my predictions... i always thought sharon would be assasinated by an extremist... but this works too.

with that said... fuck all of you.

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